Document Type

Report

Publication Date

9-2026

Abstract

This report provides a framework for how analysts can leverage observable activities of foreign terrorist organization-designated transnational criminal organizations (FDTCOs) as indicators for underlying decision-making processes around organizational stress, adaptation, and other strategic tradeoffs. Building on our understanding of FDTCOs as operating within entrepreneurial ecosystems, we apply a decision domain framework to three groups through case studies: Sinaloa Cartel, Jalisco New Generation Cartel, and MS-13. These groups pose a persistent as well as growing threat to American communities and the broader Western Hemisphere.

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