Examining Leader Narratives Within a Deterrence Framework
Advisor Information
Gina Ligon
Location
Dr. C.C. and Mabel L. Criss Library
Presentation Type
Poster
Start Date
4-3-2016 9:00 AM
End Date
4-3-2016 10:30 AM
Abstract
Leader narratives are a critical mechanism through which influence occurs. They allow leaders to convey their prescriptions of how they interpret the crisis at hand, as well as guide responses to such crises. The central focus of this study is the examination of the narrative as produced by President Putin in his public speeches leading up to the Olympic Bid for the 2014 Sochi Olympics and 2014 Crimean incident. Utilizing the conceptual framework established by Gaddis and colleagues to assess leader communication (Mumford et al., 2006) and methodology for assessing historical data of leaders (Ligon, Harris, & Hunter, 2012), the narratives of President Putin were dissected for behavioral markers that indicated collaborative action taken leading to the Olympics, and the violent actions taken by deploying forces into Crimea. This study found that President Putin derogates targets, i.e. characterizes targets as untrustworthy or evil, significantly more in times prior to a violent event than in times prior to a non-violent event. Learning and establishing behavioral markers of leader’s narratives that lead to violence could facilitate deterring violent conflicts nationwide. Using this study, the authors illustrate the need for more within-subject design studies as a first step for understanding leader narrative.
Examining Leader Narratives Within a Deterrence Framework
Dr. C.C. and Mabel L. Criss Library
Leader narratives are a critical mechanism through which influence occurs. They allow leaders to convey their prescriptions of how they interpret the crisis at hand, as well as guide responses to such crises. The central focus of this study is the examination of the narrative as produced by President Putin in his public speeches leading up to the Olympic Bid for the 2014 Sochi Olympics and 2014 Crimean incident. Utilizing the conceptual framework established by Gaddis and colleagues to assess leader communication (Mumford et al., 2006) and methodology for assessing historical data of leaders (Ligon, Harris, & Hunter, 2012), the narratives of President Putin were dissected for behavioral markers that indicated collaborative action taken leading to the Olympics, and the violent actions taken by deploying forces into Crimea. This study found that President Putin derogates targets, i.e. characterizes targets as untrustworthy or evil, significantly more in times prior to a violent event than in times prior to a non-violent event. Learning and establishing behavioral markers of leader’s narratives that lead to violence could facilitate deterring violent conflicts nationwide. Using this study, the authors illustrate the need for more within-subject design studies as a first step for understanding leader narrative.