Document Type
Article
Publication Date
8-7-2024
Publication Title
Justice Quarterly
Volume
Latest Articles
First Page
1
Last Page
21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2024.2386637
Abstract
Risk-needs assessments (RNAs) are an evidence-based practice used by practitioners to assign supervision and programming. While foundational to day-to-day practices, these tools are typically applied ‘off-the shelf,’ and are mistakenly assumed to demonstrate equivalent prediction accuracy regardless of location or population. Although researchers and providers are aware these tools experience performance shrinkage, the issue is commonly ignored. In 2016 the Tennessee Department of Correction (TDOC) collaborated with the developers of the Static Risk Offender Needs Guide – Revised (STRONG-R) to create a staged development of a locally developed risk needs assessment. Using propensity score matching, a proxy sample was used to create an initial version of the STRONG-R, representing a TDOC-like sample. This version was deployed in 2017. Following data collection, developers recrafted the tool with local data to make Version 2.0. Findings demonstrate improved performance using this innovative method, effectively eliminating performance shrinkage for the TDOC STRONG-R.
Recommended Citation
Hamilton, Z., Kigerl, A., Allen, B., Ursino, J., & Krushas, A. (2024). Never Going to Let You Down: Preventing Predictive Shrinkage via the STRONG-R Assessment Method. Justice Quarterly, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2024.2386637
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.
Comments
This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Justice Quarterly on August 7, 2024, available online: https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2024.2386637