Date of Award
Master of Arts (MA)
The United States excels and leads the world in beef production. One reason for the large production is the fact that the United States is also the world's largest beef consumer. But over the past tw enty years, beef consumption in the United States has been on the decline. Among the Japanese, beef consumption is on the rise. Given the objective to gain com petitiveness in world trade, the ability of the United States to export more beef and take advantage of these circumstances may help the United States increase exports. The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate the effects of the Beef Market Access Agreement on the demand for beef in Japan. This is done by looking at the situation in both a Macroeconomic and Microeconomic manner. First, a literature review evaluating several studies which look into these effects is considered. Two studies are highlighted among the review to evaluate predictions of beef demand over the ten years after the lifting of restrictions. These show that changes in personal income and the price of beef will influence changes in the demand for beef. Afterwards, an aggregate import demand specification is introduced and tested for Japan. This specification also suggests that income and import price are determining factors in aggregate import demand. The thesis begins w ith macroeconomic comparisons between the United States and Japan, demonstrating the trade balance differences among the nations. Later, Japan's economy with respect to beef production, demand and prices is introduced and compared with the United States. A history of Japan's food production and consumption in general and beef demand in particular is also highlighted. Although the evaluation is in the beef industry alone, and since historical demand has been skewed by restrictions. Therefore, evaluation of Japanese aggregate import demand is the second of the two main objectives of this thesis. This thesis evaluates circumstances which have resulted in Japan's beef quota, and current, encouraging events which have been dismantling these restrictive practices. After the literature review, the econometric model is tested using quarterly statistics from 1960-1990. The results of the model are given and compared with the findings of the earlier literature studies. Finally, recommendations for further study are considered.
O'Donnell, Patrick, "Aggregate Import Demand in Japan: And Comparisons with Changes in Japanese Beef Import Demand Resulting from the Beef Market Access Agreement" (1992). Student Work. 1356.