Date of Award
Master of Arts (MA)
Decision making involves analysis of relevant factors in order to determine a course of action. Since the action to he taken carries into the future, a decision must take into consideration the future status of and effects of any changes in these relevant factors. If these factors are likely to change in the future, the effect of any change must be considered now, before the decision is made. The problem is that it is difficult to foresee these changes. Because the future cannot be known perfectly, and because the correctness of a decision depends on the future status of relevant factors, the decision-makers must often rely on a forecast. As Theil puts it quite simply, ”A forecast or a prediction...is defined as a statement concerning unknown, particularly future, events.”
Boyd, Eugene Michael, "A survey of economic forecasting techniques" (1977). Student Work. 937.