Document Type

Report

Publication Date

11-2024

Abstract

Threat and risk assessment are the processes of identifying, assessing, and managing threats of targeted violence prompted by warning behaviors. Threat and risk assessment differs from the traditional operations of law enforcement as it may provide predictive information rather than investigating threats after a violent offense has been committed. Threat and risk assessment examine the escalation of behavior over time and validates information from multiple sources

to reach a level of concern. Initially developed to prevent assassinations, the tools and approaches involved in threat assessment have emerged as a violence prevention measure useful in many different types of settings, including workplaces, schools, universities, and even private corporations. Due to its increasing and ubiquitous use, it is necessary to critically examine the effectiveness of such methods and models in preventing violent and harmful events.

The National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education (NCITE) Center at the University of Nebraska Omaha was tasked to examine the current state and promising practices of threat assessment and threat management programs by the Department of Homeland Security. More specifically, this effort seeks to evaluate current programs to better understand the need, utilization, and efficacy of these tools and models.

This objective was met via three deliverables. An examination of 23 meta-analyses, comprising 2,108 individual studies that include more than 1 million participants, the Threat/Risk Assessment Literature Review provides a comprehensive framing of what threat and risk assessment entails, the effectiveness of these assessments, and the potential implications of these assessments at preventing or mitigating targeted violence. Threat Assessment Interviews: Threat Assessment Practices in the Field provides a more detailed understanding of how threat and risk assessment professionals are using these tools in their day-to-day work along with any challenges that may impact the tools' effectiveness. Lastly, What Works in Threat and Risk Assessment, for Whom, and in What Circumstances? The State of the Evidence acts as a supplementary document to the Threat/Risk Assessment Literature Review. This document

examines if these tools have worked, how they worked, what conditions are needed for success, what needs to be implemented, and the cost of using these tools.

Through this effort, we identified four "blind spots" and various fixations of current threat assessment models and practices that may impact the accuracy and effectiveness of their use. Overall, current threat and risk assessment practices and models are fixated on domestic and federal level methods, procedures and knowledge. Additionally, uncommon, novel, and Internal threats are overlooked compared to common and external ones. A series of reports were developed to address these blind spots and provide guidance on how to remove and address these fixations. In this report, we synthesize nine key lessons learned across these reports, which aim to address these blind spots.

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