Date of Award

5-7-2026

Degree Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Criminology and Criminal Justice

First Advisor

Dr. Zachary Hamilton

Abstract

This dissertation examines the dynamic mechanisms that drive correctional population change and evaluates strategies for sustainable decarceration. Despite widespread calls for evidence-based corrections, methodological tools such as time series analysis remain underutilized for understanding population management. This dissertation addresses this gap through a three-paper design that applies advanced time-series methods to key stages of the correctional continuum. Chapter Two uses interrupted time-series analysis to evaluate the impacts of both proactive (policy-driven) and reactive (COVID-19 and court mandate-related) decarceration events in Washington State on admissions, technical violations, and recidivism outcomes, clarifying how policy design affects prison admission flows. Chapter Three employs vector autoregression to forecast jail populations in a mid-sized county in Nebraska, identifying system-level drivers that produce bottlenecks and cyclical patterns of crowding. Chapter Four applies Johansen cointegration, error-correction models, and dynamic mediation analyses to Nebraska’s prison population to determine whether admissions, releases, and population size maintain long-run equilibrium relationships, how quickly deviations from average population flows are corrected, and the mechanisms through which reform efforts are neutralized. Collectively, these studies contribute to theory by conceptualizing correctional institutions as interconnected systems with feedback loops that complicate reform efforts, and to practice by providing policymakers with actionable insights for designing coordinated, multi-level interventions. By integrating methodological rigor with policy relevance and theoretical guidance, this dissertation offers a roadmap for managing correctional populations in ways that enhance public safety, reduce unnecessary incarceration, and promote system stability

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