Advisor Information
Dr. Kathryn Cooper
Location
room 232
Presentation Type
Oral Presentation
Start Date
1-3-2019 12:45 PM
End Date
1-3-2019 2:00 PM
Abstract
Outbreaks of pertussis have increased over the past few years, drawing the attention of health care providers. Understanding the transmission mechanisms of contagious disease is critically important, but depends on many intricate factors including pathogen and host environment, exposed population, and their activities. In this work, we try to improve upon the prediction model for the exposed population. The number of whooping cough reported cases in Nebraska between 2000-2017 was gathered. The standard SEIR model is used to predict the infected numbers. The results show that the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model prediction for the number of infected individuals is much higher than the actual number. To overcome this problem, the Network Based-SEIR model is proposed and is able to estimate the number of infected more accurately than the classic SEIR model.
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Included in
A Compartmental Network Model for the Spread of Whooping Cough
room 232
Outbreaks of pertussis have increased over the past few years, drawing the attention of health care providers. Understanding the transmission mechanisms of contagious disease is critically important, but depends on many intricate factors including pathogen and host environment, exposed population, and their activities. In this work, we try to improve upon the prediction model for the exposed population. The number of whooping cough reported cases in Nebraska between 2000-2017 was gathered. The standard SEIR model is used to predict the infected numbers. The results show that the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model prediction for the number of infected individuals is much higher than the actual number. To overcome this problem, the Network Based-SEIR model is proposed and is able to estimate the number of infected more accurately than the classic SEIR model.