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Space and Defense

Fall 2024

Editor's Note

Editor’s Note Vol. 15 No. 2 (Fall 2024)

The feature articles in this issue [Vol. 15, No. 2 (Fall 2024)] explore the nexus of space operations and nuclear deterrence. Stephen Cimbala and Adam Lowther kick off by describing a template of Nuclear Regimes for guiding twenty-first century policy making. Most of the regimes involve intercontinental ballistic missiles, which would be monitored and tracked by satellites. The defense-oriented regime, if pursued, could lead toward investments in space-based missile defense.

To the extent that space operations would support a drone-based alternative for boost-phase missile defense, James Wells, William Priedhorsky, Frederick Lamb, and Laura Grego provide preliminary systems analysis to show how drone platforms for rapid interceptors might succeed at first but falter later as North Korea switched from liquid-fuel to solid-fuel rockets.

Jeffrey Lehmkuhl argues that missile defenses might avoid their ultimate and darkest test if the United States could renew its dedication toward conventional deterrence, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, as a defense measure against the deterrence gap exposed by China’s nuclear buildup at the highest level of destruction. Careful consideration should be given to preparing U.S. and allied forces for joint operations—without nuclear weapons—if the United States wishes to avoid the consequences of a stability-instability paradox: the notion that China’s achievement of rough parity in strategic nuclear warheads would make the Asia-Pacific theater “safe” for a conventional contest.

The magnitude and general success of a national effort to reinforce conventional forces in strategic theaters will depend on U.S. Space Command’s capacity to keep vital information flowing to commanders once hostilities begin on earth. In my own piece as a contributing editor to this volume, I ask whether current pessimism on arms control—until favorable political conditions return—might be misplaced. Arms control on missile defense systems that have yet to be deployed, or on disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence or space-based weapons, might incentivize states to stick with a diplomatic settlement for a new, post-Ukraine War security architecture. Whenever diplomacy offers an escape from a wasting war of attrition against Russia or another great power, arms control, even if it does not include dramatic disarmament, can help prevent a frozen conflict from metastasizing into a Cuban-Missile-style crisis.

If security architectures are built soon in strategic regions such as Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East to reduce risk of great power war, the United States will be better off if it can count on steady cooperation from international partners. In this issue, three officers from U.S. Space Command, David Moore, Jesse Morehouse, and Patrick Mitchell, send “Field Notes,” informing readers of Space & Defense on innovative new partnerships between the United States and space commands of other nations, leveraging the existing U.S. National Guard State Partnership Program (SPP). At a time when the U.S. Congress elected to defer creation of a U.S. Space National Guard, U.S Space Command has collaborated with the National Guard Bureau to organize international workshops and exercises with allies and partners on future joint operations in the space domain. Communication across the various space units has been facilitated by individual state Air and Army National Guard detachments that are standing partners under SPP of 115 nations around the globe.

In addition to these professional contributions, this issue of Space & Defense boasts a robust “Student Voices” section with five papers, ranging from historical analogies for strengthening space deterrence concepts to funding for a U.S. Nuclear Test Readiness program and shoring up the role of American values in setting cybersecurity policy. The lead student contribution on the German Zeitenwende, or comprehensive defense buildup, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows that it is never too early for American students to engage in strategic thinking. In laying out her case for why the Zeitenwende placed Germany in a national security bind and why it would likely lead to collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government, Colorado Springs high school senior Savannah Hollen demonstrated her prescience in World Affairs and became the youngest contributor ever to this journal.

Damon Coletta

USAFA

November 2024