Space and Defense
Article Title
A Premature Obituary for Conventional Deterrence
Abstract
Evolving conceptions of integrated deterrence will revive flagging enthusiasm among national security decision makers for the value of theater conventional forces. As the United States (US) continues to shift its weight of effort towards great power competition, some scholars and practitioners have questioned the relevance of conventional forces and their ability to deter. Chief among them is Sean McFate, who asserts that “conventional war is unicorn hunting” and that “no one fights that way anymore.”1 Jim Sciutto echoes McFate’s claims in his book The Shadow War and states that the US is losing to Russia and China in a new way of warfare that is conducted below the threshold of conventional warfare.2 Leading Russian General Valery Gerasimov furthered this claim when he wrote, “The very ‘rules of war’ have changed. The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness.”3 This new form of warfare has been referred to as irregular warfare, grey zone tactics, hybrid warfare, and political warfare.